4 of 5 models favor the Bears.
On average the models have the Bears by 1.1 points, a 54% win chance.
Final: Packers 31, Bears 7.
Closest: Our model (Packers by 5.6, missed by 18.4). 1 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was wrong.
Frozen at kickoff. Predictions never change after kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Packers won 31–7. Love threw for 367 yards and 2 touchdowns. Our call (Bears, Toss-up) was wrong.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Bears | Packers |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 246 | 428 |
| Passing yards | 165 | 358 |
| Rushing yards | 81 | 70 |
| Sacked | 4 (30 yards) | 2 (9 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 3 | 0 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Bears by 1.1 ✗ | 54% | 25.1 |
| Our model Experimental ClosestOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Packers by 5.6 ✓ | 67% | 18.4 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Bears by 2.1 ✗ | 58% | 26.1 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Bears by 5.9 ✗ | 67% | 29.9 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Bears by 1.9 ✗ | 57% | 25.9 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Bears ✗ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Bears by 1.5 | — | 25.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Injury statuses as of , the last check before kickoff.
The last official Week 5 injury report before kickoff, as of Sun, Oct 11 · 1:01 AM CT, frozen with the prediction: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice. A status marked "Status from ESPN" is ESPN's, where it is newer than the official report on file or the report has no game status yet; the injury and practice are still the report's.
And 2 more on the report.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 5; league rank in brackets.
| Bears | Packers | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.12 (4th) | −0.09 (28th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.10 (6th) | −0.02 (18th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.02 (10th) | +0.07 (28th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.20 (5th) | +0.09 (14th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.03 (6th) | −0.23 (32nd) |
| Offense success rate | 47% (5th) | 42% (21st) |
The Bears won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Jan 10, 2026Wild Card, 2025 | Bears 31, Packers 27at Chicago |
| Dec 20, 2025Week 16, 2025 | Bears 22, Packers 16at Chicago |
| Dec 7, 2025Week 14, 2025 | Packers 28, Bears 21at Green Bay |
| Jan 5, 2025Week 18, 2024 | Bears 24, Packers 22at Green Bay |
| Nov 17, 2024Week 11, 2024 | Packers 20, Bears 19at Chicago |