4 of 5 models favor the Patriots.
On average the models have the Patriots by 5.3 points, a 67% win chance.
Final: Patriots 45, Raiders 17.
Closest: Elo (Patriots by 7.7, missed by 20.3). 4 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Frozen at kickoff. Predictions never change after kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Patriots won 45–17. Maye threw for 374 yards and 4 touchdowns. Our call (Patriots, Lean) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Raiders | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 306 | 536 |
| Passing yards | 268 | 371 |
| Rushing yards | 38 | 165 |
| Sacked | 3 (23 yards) | 1 (3 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Patriots by 5.3 ✓ | 67% | 22.7 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Patriots by 6.4 ✓ | 69% | 21.6 |
| Elo ClosestEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Patriots by 7.7 ✓ | 75% | 20.3 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Patriots by 3.5 ✓ | 60% | 24.5 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Patriots by 3.5 ✓ | 63% | 24.5 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Raiders ✗ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Patriots by 3.5 | — | 24.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Injury statuses as of , the last check before kickoff.
The last official Week 5 injury report before kickoff, as of Sun, Oct 11 · 1:01 AM CT, frozen with the prediction: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice. A status marked "Status from ESPN" is ESPN's, where it is newer than the official report on file or the report has no game status yet; the injury and practice are still the report's.
And 5 more on the report.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 5; league rank in brackets.
| Raiders | Patriots | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.05 (10th) | −0.01 (15th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | 0.00 (15th) | −0.03 (21st) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.05 (3rd) | −0.02 (9th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.13 (12th) | +0.04 (18th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.17 (28th) | −0.14 (25th) |
| Offense success rate | 42% (22nd) | 43% (19th) |
The Raiders won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Sep 7, 2025Week 1, 2025 | Raiders 20, Patriots 13at New England |
| Oct 15, 2023Week 6, 2023 | Raiders 21, Patriots 17at Las Vegas |
| Dec 18, 2022Week 15, 2022 | Raiders 30, Patriots 24at Las Vegas |
| Sep 27, 2020Week 3, 2020 | Patriots 36, Raiders 20at New England |
| Nov 19, 2017Week 11, 2017 | Patriots 33, Raiders 8neutral site |