4 of 5 models favor the Rams.
On average the models have the Rams by 2.2 points, a 57% win chance.
Final (overtime): Bills 37, Rams 34.
Closest: Elo (Rams by 0.1, missed by 3.1). 1 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was wrong.
Frozen at kickoff. Predictions never change after kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Bills won 37–34 in overtime. Allen threw for 210 yards and 1 touchdown. Our call (Rams, Toss-up) was wrong.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Bills | Rams |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 436 | 454 |
| Passing yards | 202 | 377 |
| Rushing yards | 234 | 77 |
| Sacked | 1 (8 yards) | 1 (6 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 0 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Rams by 2.2 ✗ | 57% | 5.2 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Rams by 2.7 ✗ | 58% | 5.7 |
| Elo ClosestEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Rams by 0.1 ✗ | 50% | 3.1 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Rams by 3.9 ✗ | 61% | 6.9 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Rams by 2.1 ✗ | 58% | 5.1 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Bills ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Rams by 3.5 | — | 6.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Injury statuses as of , the last check before kickoff.
The last official Week 5 injury report before kickoff, as of Mon, Oct 12 · 1:01 AM CT, frozen with the prediction: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice. A status marked "Status from ESPN" is ESPN's, where it is newer than the official report on file or the report has no game status yet; the injury and practice are still the report's.
And 4 more on the report.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 5; league rank in brackets.
| Bills | Rams | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.03 (13th) | +0.11 (5th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.13 (3rd) | +0.02 (11th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.10 (30th) | −0.10 (2nd) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.20 (4th) | +0.08 (15th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | +0.03 (3rd) | −0.08 (16th) |
| Offense success rate | 47% (4th) | 46% (10th) |
The Bills won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Dec 8, 2024Week 14, 2024 | Rams 44, Bills 42at Los Angeles |
| Sep 8, 2022Week 1, 2022 | Bills 31, Rams 10at Los Angeles |
| Sep 27, 2020Week 3, 2020 | Bills 35, Rams 32at Buffalo |
| Oct 9, 2016Week 5, 2016 | Bills 30, Rams 19at Los Angeles |
| Dec 9, 2012Week 14, 2012 | Rams 15, Bills 12at Buffalo |