5 of 5 models favor the Broncos.
On average the models have the Broncos by 2.1 points, a 57% win chance.
Final: Broncos 23, Chargers 17.
Closest: Elo (Broncos by 4.4, missed by 1.6). 5 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Frozen at kickoff. Predictions never change after kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Broncos won 23–17. Nix threw for 123 yards and 1 touchdown. Our call (Broncos, Toss-up) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Broncos | Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 224 | 237 |
| Passing yards | 118 | 82 |
| Rushing yards | 106 | 155 |
| Sacked | 1 (5 yards) | 5 (39 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Broncos by 2.1 ✓ | 57% | 3.9 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Broncos by 0.3 ✓ | 51% | 5.7 |
| Elo ClosestEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Broncos by 4.4 ✓ | 65% | 1.6 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Broncos by 3.6 ✓ | 61% | 2.4 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Broncos by 0.1 ✓ | 51% | 5.9 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Broncos ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Broncos by 3.5 | — | 2.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Injury statuses as of , the last check before kickoff.
The last official Week 5 injury report before kickoff, as of Sun, Oct 11 · 1:01 AM CT, frozen with the prediction: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
And 6 more on the report.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 5; league rank in brackets.
| Broncos | Chargers | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.04 (11th) | −0.09 (27th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.01 (13th) | −0.10 (32nd) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.02 (8th) | −0.02 (12th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.04 (17th) | −0.10 (29th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.03 (7th) | −0.12 (22nd) |
| Offense success rate | 42% (23rd) | 42% (24th) |
The Chargers won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Jan 4, 2026Week 18, 2025 | Broncos 19, Chargers 3at Denver |
| Sep 21, 2025Week 3, 2025 | Chargers 23, Broncos 20at Los Angeles |
| Dec 19, 2024Week 16, 2024 | Chargers 34, Broncos 27at Los Angeles |
| Oct 13, 2024Week 6, 2024 | Chargers 23, Broncos 16at Denver |
| Dec 31, 2023Week 17, 2023 | Broncos 16, Chargers 9at Denver |