4 of 5 models favor the 49ers.
On average the models have the 49ers by 0.2 points, a 50% win chance.
Final: 49ers 32, Seahawks 29.
Closest: Our model (49ers by 2.4, missed by 0.6). 4 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Frozen at kickoff. Predictions never change after kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The 49ers won 32–29. Purdy threw for 189 yards and 2 touchdowns. Our call (49ers, Toss-up) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | 49ers | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 269 | 251 |
| Passing yards | 175 | 162 |
| Rushing yards | 94 | 89 |
| Sacked | 3 (14 yards) | 5 (33 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 2 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | 49ers by 0.2 ✓ | 50% | 2.8 |
| Our model Experimental ClosestOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | 49ers by 2.4 ✓ | 58% | 0.6 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Seahawks by 3.6 ✗ | 63% | 6.6 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | 49ers by 0.2 ✓ | 50% | 2.8 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | 49ers by 1.6 ✓ | 56% | 1.4 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | 49ers ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Seahawks by 3 | — | 6.0 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Injury statuses as of , the last check before kickoff.
The last official Week 5 injury report before kickoff, as of Sun, Oct 11 · 1:01 AM CT, frozen with the prediction: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 5; league rank in brackets.
| 49ers | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.19 (1st) | +0.06 (8th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.21 (1st) | +0.02 (12th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.03 (21st) | −0.04 (4th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.39 (1st) | +0.14 (10th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.04 (9th) | −0.14 (26th) |
| Offense success rate | 52% (1st) | 45% (13th) |
The Seahawks won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Jan 17, 2026Divisional, 2025 | Seahawks 41, 49ers 6at Seattle |
| Jan 3, 2026Week 18, 2025 | Seahawks 13, 49ers 3at San Francisco |
| Sep 7, 2025Week 1, 2025 | 49ers 17, Seahawks 13at Seattle |
| Nov 17, 2024Week 11, 2024 | Seahawks 20, 49ers 17at San Francisco |
| Oct 10, 2024Week 6, 2024 | 49ers 36, Seahawks 24at Seattle |