5 of 5 models favor the Bengals.
On average the models have the Bengals by 4.5 points, a 65% win chance.
Final: Bengals 31, Dolphins 24.
Closest of our models: ESPN FPI (Bengals by 9.2, missed by 2.2). 5 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Frozen at kickoff. Predictions never change after kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Bengals won 31–24. Burrow threw for 190 yards and 4 touchdowns. Our call (Bengals, Lean) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Bengals | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 307 | 331 |
| Passing yards | 190 | 114 |
| Rushing yards | 117 | 217 |
| Sacked | 0 | 3 (23 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 2 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Bengals by 4.5 ✓ | 65% | 2.5 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Bengals by 3.6 ✓ | 61% | 3.4 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Bengals by 3.2 ✓ | 61% | 3.8 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Bengals by 2.1 ✓ | 56% | 4.9 |
| ESPN FPI ClosestESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Bengals by 9.2 ✓ | 81% | 2.2 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Bengals ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Bengals by 7 | — | 0.0 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Injury statuses as of , the last check before kickoff.
The last official Week 5 injury report before kickoff, as of Sun, Oct 11 · 1:01 AM CT, frozen with the prediction: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice. A status marked "Status from ESPN" is ESPN's, where it is newer than the official report on file or the report has no game status yet; the injury and practice are still the report's.
And 1 more on the report.
And 1 more on the report.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 5; league rank in brackets.
| Bengals | Dolphins | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.05 (9th) | −0.11 (30th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.06 (10th) | −0.06 (29th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.01 (17th) | +0.05 (24th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.12 (13th) | −0.02 (24th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.06 (14th) | −0.12 (24th) |
| Offense success rate | 45% (12th) | 39% (31st) |
The Bengals won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Dec 21, 2025Week 16, 2025 | Bengals 45, Dolphins 21at Miami |
| Sep 29, 2022Week 4, 2022 | Bengals 27, Dolphins 15at Cincinnati |
| Dec 6, 2020Week 13, 2020 | Dolphins 19, Bengals 7at Miami |
| Dec 22, 2019Week 16, 2019 | Dolphins 38, Bengals 35at Miami |
| Oct 7, 2018Week 5, 2018 | Bengals 27, Dolphins 17at Cincinnati |