3 of 5 models favor the Colts.
On average the models have the Colts by 0.2 points, a 50% win chance.
Final: Colts 19, Texans 17.
Closest: SRS (Colts by 0.8, missed by 1.2). 3 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 3 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Colts won 19–17. Jones threw for 235 yards and 1 touchdown. Our call (Colts, Toss-up) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Texans | Colts |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 223 | 300 |
| Passing yards | 153 | 211 |
| Rushing yards | 70 | 89 |
| Sacked | 3 (14 yards) | 4 (24 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Colts by 0.2 ✓ | 50% | 1.8 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Colts by 3.7 ✓ | 61% | 1.7 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Texans by 2.9 ✗ | 60% | 4.9 |
| SRS ClosestSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Colts by 0.8 ✓ | 52% | 1.2 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Texans by 0.9 ✗ | 53% | 2.9 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Colts ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Texans by 1.5 | — | 3.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 3 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
And 1 more on the report.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 3; league rank in brackets.
| Texans | Colts | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.06 (24th) | −0.10 (28th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.05 (26th) | 0.00 (15th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.01 (17th) | +0.10 (30th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.03 (25th) | −0.01 (29th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.18 (29th) | 0.00 (2nd) |
| Offense success rate | 41% (27th) | 44% (10th) |
The Texans won 5 of the last 5 meetings.
| Jan 4, 2026Week 18, 2025 | Texans 38, Colts 30at Houston |
| Nov 30, 2025Week 13, 2025 | Texans 20, Colts 16at Indianapolis |
| Oct 27, 2024Week 8, 2024 | Texans 23, Colts 20at Houston |
| Sep 8, 2024Week 1, 2024 | Texans 29, Colts 27at Indianapolis |
| Jan 6, 2024Week 18, 2023 | Texans 23, Colts 19at Indianapolis |