4–0, 1st in the AFC West; offense top 10, defense middle of the league.
The Chiefs are 4–0 in 2026, 2–0 against the AFC West.
By opponent-adjusted EPA per play the Chiefs' offense ranks 4th (+0.11) and their defense 14th (−0.01 allowed); 3rd of 32 by net (+0.12).
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18 · 3:25 PM CT on CBS
Our call: Chiefs Strong
5 of 5 models favor the Chiefs. On average the models have the Chiefs by 7.6 points, a 73% win chance.
Every model, the quarterbacks and the matchup →
TV listings: ESPN
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours. League-wide news →
| Team | Record | In the division |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 4–0 | 2–0 |
| Denver Broncos | 3–2 | 1–1 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 3–2 | 1–1 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0–5 | 0–2 |
By winning percentage (a tie counts half), then the NFL's division tiebreakers as our standings apply them.
| Week | Opponent | Result | Our call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1Mon, Sep 14 · ESPN and ABC | vs Broncos | W 31–10 | Chiefs Toss-up · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 2Sun, Sep 20 · NBC | vs Colts | W 33–30 (OT) | Chiefs Lean · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 3Sun, Sep 27 · CBS | at Dolphins | W 24–10 | Chiefs Lean · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 4Sun, Oct 4 · CBS | at Raiders | W 30–27 | Chiefs Lean · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 5 | Bye | |||
| Week 6Sun, Oct 18 · CBS | vs Chargers | — | Chiefs Strong | Game page |
| Week 7Sun, Oct 25 · NBC | at Seahawks | — | Seahawks Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 8Sun, Nov 1 · CBS | at Broncos | — | Broncos Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 9Sun, Nov 8 · CBS | vs Jets | — | Chiefs Strong | Game page |
| Week 10Sun, Nov 15 · CBS | at Falcons | — | Chiefs Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 11Sun, Nov 22 · CBS | vs Cardinals | — | Chiefs Strong | Game page |
| Week 12Thu, Nov 26 · NBC | at Bills | — | Bills Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 13Thu, Dec 3 · Prime Video | at Rams | — | Rams Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 14Sun, Dec 13 · Fox | at Bengals | — | Chiefs Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 15Mon, Dec 21 · ESPN and ABC | vs Patriots | — | Chiefs Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 16Sun, Dec 27 · CBS | vs 49ers | — | 49ers Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 17Sun, Jan 3 | at Chargers | — | Chiefs Lean | Game page |
| Week 18Sun, Jan 10 | vs Raiders | — | Chiefs Strong | Game page |
Our call is the team the consensus of our models favored before kickoff, never changed after it; ✓ when that team won, ✗ when it lost. Each game page shows every model.
TV listings: ESPN
2026 regular season through Week 5, from nflverse's player stats: the Chiefs players above the leaders page's marks per team game.
| Player | Yardspassing | Attempts | Completedof attempts | TD | INT | EPAper dropback |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick MahomesQB | 1,037 | 128 | 64% | 9 | 2 | +0.19 |
| Player | Yardsrushing | Carries | Yardsper carry | TDrushing | Targets | Share ofteam targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker IIIRB | 537 | 87 | 6.2 | 4 | 19 | 16% |
| Player | Yardsreceiving | Catches | Targets | Share ofteam targets | Air yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyquan ThorntonWR | 219 | 11 | 15 | 13% | 281 | 2 |
| Rashee RiceWR | 190 | 13 | 17 | 14% | 126 | 1 |
| Xavier WorthyWR | 133 | 14 | 22 | 19% | 210 | 1 |
| Player | Yardsreceiving | Catches | Targets | Share ofteam targets | Air yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis KelceTE | 246 | 16 | 22 | 19% | 132 | 2 |
| Player | Tackles | For loss | Sacks | INT | Passesdefended | Fumblesforced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick BoltonLB | 37 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Drue TranquillLB | 29 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| L'Jarius SneedCB | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Jaden HicksSAF | 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Mansoor DelaneCB | 20 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Alohi GilmanSAF | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| George KarlaftisDE | 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Nohl WilliamsCB | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Chris JonesDE | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Ashton GillotteDE | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Top 10 by tackles.
| Player | FG made | FG tried | Longestyards | Extra pointsmade | Extra pointstried |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrison ButkerK | 7 | 9 | 46 | 13 | 13 |
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, 2026 regular season to date; league rank of 32 beside each.
| Chiefs | Rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.11 | 4th |
| Offense, success rate | 47% | 5th |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.15 | 8th |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | +0.04 | 2nd |
What the defense allowed, opponent-adjusted, 2026 regular season to date; 1st allowed the least. Net is offense minus defense.
| Chiefs | Rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Defense, EPA per play allowed | −0.01 | 14th |
| Defense, success rate allowed | 43% | 14th |
| Pass defense, EPA per dropback allowed | +0.05 | 17th |
| Run defense, EPA per run allowed | −0.13 | 7th |
| Net EPA per play (offense minus defense) | +0.12 | 3rd |
Week 4 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet
The official injury report, as of Tue, Oct 13 · 9:57 AM CT: players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Our call had the winner in 4 of 4 Chiefs games (100%).
| Model | Games | Winner right | Rate | Average miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call) | 4 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 7.3 |
| Our model Experimental | 4 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 6.7 |
| Elo | 4 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 9.3 |
| SRS | 4 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 7.7 |
| ESPN FPI | 4 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 7.1 |
| Record | 4 | 3 of 4 | 75% | — |
Winner right: games where the model favored the team that won (a tie counts half). Average miss: points between the model's margin and the final margin. Weeks 1–4 reconstructed: worked out afterwards from data before each week. Every game, every team →
Very likely in: the Chiefs reach the playoffs in 92% of our 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season and win the AFC West in 74%; their average finish is 11–6.
In the race for the 2027 draft: the Chiefs get the #1 pick in 0% of the simulations and a top-5 pick in <1%. Draft order →
After Week 5's games; simulated Tue, Oct 13 · 6:05 PM CT. The rest of the season is played out 20,000 times, each game with our call's win chance; the NFL's tiebreakers are applied in simplified form (no points or touchdown steps). How the simulation works →