5 of 5 models favor the Chiefs.
On average the models have the Chiefs by 5.4 points, a 67% win chance.
Final: Chiefs 24, Dolphins 10.
Closest: ESPN FPI (Chiefs by 11.2, missed by 2.8). 5 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 3 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Chiefs won 24–10. Mahomes threw for 246 yards and 2 touchdowns. Our call (Chiefs, Lean) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Chiefs | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 334 | 329 |
| Passing yards | 246 | 210 |
| Rushing yards | 88 | 119 |
| Sacked | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 1 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Chiefs by 5.4 ✓ | 67% | 8.6 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Chiefs by 2.6 ✓ | 58% | 11.4 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Chiefs by 3.5 ✓ | 62% | 10.5 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Chiefs by 4.3 ✓ | 62% | 9.7 |
| ESPN FPI ClosestESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Chiefs by 11.2 ✓ | 85% | 2.8 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Chiefs ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Chiefs by 10 | — | 4.0 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 3 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 3; league rank in brackets.
| Chiefs | Dolphins | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.09 (4th) | −0.08 (25th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.08 (6th) | −0.01 (21st) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.01 (13th) | +0.07 (28th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.11 (11th) | +0.05 (20th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | +0.02 (1st) | −0.12 (21st) |
| Offense success rate | 46% (6th) | 42% (23rd) |
The Chiefs won 5 of the last 5 meetings.
| Jan 13, 2024Wild Card, 2023 | Chiefs 26, Dolphins 7at Kansas City |
| Nov 5, 2023Week 9, 2023 | Chiefs 21, Dolphins 14neutral site |
| Dec 13, 2020Week 14, 2020 | Chiefs 33, Dolphins 27at Miami |
| Dec 24, 2017Week 16, 2017 | Chiefs 29, Dolphins 13at Kansas City |
| Sep 21, 2014Week 3, 2014 | Chiefs 34, Dolphins 15at Miami |