4 of 5 models favor the Chiefs.
On average the models have the Chiefs by 2.3 points, a 57% win chance.
Final: Chiefs 31, Broncos 10.
Closest: Our model (Chiefs by 9.1, missed by 11.9). 4 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 1 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Chiefs won 31–10. Mahomes threw for 184 yards and 2 touchdowns. Our call (Chiefs, Toss-up) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Broncos | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 176 | 392 |
| Passing yards | 115 | 172 |
| Rushing yards | 61 | 220 |
| Sacked | 4 (16 yards) | 2 (12 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 1 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Chiefs by 2.3 ✓ | 57% | 18.7 |
| Our model Experimental ClosestOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Chiefs by 9.1 ✓ | 76% | 11.9 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Broncos by 3.2 ✗ | 61% | 24.2 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Chiefs by 0.8 ✓ | 52% | 20.2 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Chiefs by 2.4 ✓ | 60% | 18.6 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Chiefs ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Chiefs by 2.5 | — | 18.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 1 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
No one listed.
The Broncos won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Dec 25, 2025Week 17, 2025 | Broncos 20, Chiefs 13at Kansas City |
| Nov 16, 2025Week 11, 2025 | Broncos 22, Chiefs 19at Denver |
| Jan 5, 2025Week 18, 2024 | Broncos 38, Chiefs 0at Denver |
| Nov 10, 2024Week 10, 2024 | Chiefs 16, Broncos 14at Kansas City |
| Oct 29, 2023Week 8, 2023 | Broncos 24, Chiefs 9at Denver |