4 of 4 models favor the Chiefs.
On average the models have the Chiefs by 4.9 points, a 65% win chance.
Early prediction, updates weekly until kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Chiefs by 4.9 | 65% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Chiefs by 4 | 62% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Chiefs by 4.3 | 65% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Chiefs by 6.5 | 68% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. Read in the week of the game. | Available game week | — |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Chiefs | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Not named yet. The quarterbacks we assume show here in game week: once every earlier game is in, or two days before Week 17's first kickoff.
The official Week 17 injury report isn't out yet. It shows here once nflverse has it, in the week of the game.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through Week 5 (the games played so far); league rank in brackets.
| Chiefs | Chargers | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.12 (3rd) | −0.10 (28th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.11 (4th) | −0.15 (32nd) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.01 (14th) | −0.05 (8th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.15 (8th) | −0.15 (32nd) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | +0.04 (2nd) | −0.16 (26th) |
| Offense success rate | 47% (5th) | 40% (29th) |
The Chiefs won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Dec 14, 2025Week 15, 2025 | Chargers 16, Chiefs 13at Kansas City |
| Sep 5, 2025Week 1, 2025 | Chargers 27, Chiefs 21neutral site |
| Dec 8, 2024Week 14, 2024 | Chiefs 19, Chargers 17at Kansas City |
| Sep 29, 2024Week 4, 2024 | Chiefs 17, Chargers 10at Los Angeles |
| Jan 7, 2024Week 18, 2023 | Chiefs 13, Chargers 12at Los Angeles |