1 of 4 models favor the Broncos.
On average the models have the Broncos by 0.1 points, a 51% win chance.
Early prediction, updates weekly until kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Broncos by 0.1 | 51% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Chiefs by 1.3 | 54% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Broncos by 2.7 | 60% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Chiefs by 1 | 53% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. Read in the week of the game. | Available game week | — |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Chiefs | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Not named yet. The quarterbacks we assume show here in game week: once every earlier game is in, or two days before Week 8's first kickoff.
The official Week 8 injury report isn't out yet. It shows here once nflverse has it, in the week of the game.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through Week 5 (the games played so far); league rank in brackets.
| Chiefs | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.12 (3rd) | +0.03 (11th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.11 (4th) | −0.02 (16th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.01 (14th) | −0.05 (5th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.15 (8th) | −0.01 (23rd) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | +0.04 (2nd) | −0.03 (10th) |
| Offense success rate | 47% (5th) | 41% (24th) |
The Broncos won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Sep 14, 2026Week 1, 2026 | Chiefs 31, Broncos 10at Kansas City |
| Dec 25, 2025Week 17, 2025 | Broncos 20, Chiefs 13at Kansas City |
| Nov 16, 2025Week 11, 2025 | Broncos 22, Chiefs 19at Denver |
| Jan 5, 2025Week 18, 2024 | Broncos 38, Chiefs 0at Denver |
| Nov 10, 2024Week 10, 2024 | Chiefs 16, Broncos 14at Kansas City |