5 of 5 models favor the Chiefs.
On average the models have the Chiefs by 7.6 points, a 73% win chance.
Updated until kickoff, then frozen.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
Weather at kickoff: 69°F, mostly sunny, wind 12 mph from the south, little chance of rain.
Forecast: National Weather Service, read Tue, Oct 13 · 10:50 PM CT.
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Chiefs by 7.6 | 73% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Chiefs by 7.2 | 71% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Chiefs by 7.5 | 75% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Chiefs by 9.7 | 76% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Chiefs by 6 | 72% |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Chiefs | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Chiefs by 8.5 | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Injury statuses as of .
The official injury report, as of Tue, Oct 13 · 9:57 AM CT: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet.
And 6 more on the report.
Week 4 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 6; league rank in brackets.
| Chargers | Chiefs | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.10 (28th) | +0.12 (3rd) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.15 (32nd) | +0.11 (4th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.05 (8th) | −0.01 (14th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | −0.15 (32nd) | +0.15 (8th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.16 (26th) | +0.04 (2nd) |
| Offense success rate | 40% (29th) | 47% (5th) |
The Chiefs won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Dec 14, 2025Week 15, 2025 | Chargers 16, Chiefs 13at Kansas City |
| Sep 5, 2025Week 1, 2025 | Chargers 27, Chiefs 21neutral site |
| Dec 8, 2024Week 14, 2024 | Chiefs 19, Chargers 17at Kansas City |
| Sep 29, 2024Week 4, 2024 | Chiefs 17, Chargers 10at Los Angeles |
| Jan 7, 2024Week 18, 2023 | Chiefs 13, Chargers 12at Los Angeles |