4 of 5 models favor the Chiefs.
On average the models have the Chiefs by 3.6 points, a 62% win chance.
Final: Chiefs 30, Raiders 27.
Closest: Elo (Chiefs by 2.7, missed by 0.3). 4 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 4 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Chiefs won 30–27. Mahomes threw for 225 yards and 2 touchdowns. Our call (Chiefs, Lean) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Chiefs | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 399 | 437 |
| Passing yards | 210 | 365 |
| Rushing yards | 189 | 72 |
| Sacked | 2 (15 yards) | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Chiefs by 3.6 ✓ | 62% | 0.6 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Chiefs by 4.3 ✓ | 63% | 1.3 |
| Elo ClosestEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Chiefs by 2.7 ✓ | 59% | 0.3 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Chiefs by 2.1 ✓ | 56% | 0.9 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Chiefs by 5.4 ✓ | 70% | 2.4 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Raiders ✗ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Chiefs by 4.5 | — | 1.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 4 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 4; league rank in brackets.
| Chiefs | Raiders | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.12 (3rd) | +0.07 (8th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.09 (6th) | 0.00 (16th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.03 (7th) | −0.07 (4th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.15 (9th) | +0.11 (15th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.01 (3rd) | −0.15 (25th) |
| Offense success rate | 47% (5th) | 41% (28th) |
The Chiefs won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Jan 4, 2026Week 18, 2025 | Raiders 14, Chiefs 12at Las Vegas |
| Oct 19, 2025Week 7, 2025 | Chiefs 31, Raiders 0at Kansas City |
| Nov 29, 2024Week 13, 2024 | Chiefs 19, Raiders 17at Kansas City |
| Oct 27, 2024Week 8, 2024 | Chiefs 27, Raiders 20at Las Vegas |
| Dec 25, 2023Week 16, 2023 | Raiders 20, Chiefs 14at Kansas City |