5 of 5 models favor the Chiefs.
On average the models have the Chiefs by 4.1 points, a 64% win chance.
Final (overtime): Chiefs 33, Colts 30.
Closest: SRS (Chiefs by 3.1, missed by 0.1). 5 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 2 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Chiefs won 33–30 in overtime. Mahomes threw for 382 yards and 3 touchdowns. Our call (Chiefs, Lean) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Colts | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 329 | 523 |
| Passing yards | 210 | 371 |
| Rushing yards | 119 | 152 |
| Sacked | 0 | 2 (11 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 0 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Chiefs by 4.1 ✓ | 64% | 1.1 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Chiefs by 0.8 ✓ | 52% | 2.2 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Chiefs by 5.1 ✓ | 68% | 2.1 |
| SRS ClosestSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Chiefs by 3.1 ✓ | 59% | 0.1 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Chiefs by 7.5 ✓ | 77% | 4.5 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Chiefs ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Chiefs by 6 | — | 3.0 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 2 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 2; league rank in brackets.
| Colts | Chiefs | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.14 (32nd) | +0.11 (3rd) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.05 (28th) | +0.05 (10th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.09 (30th) | −0.06 (3rd) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | −0.07 (31st) | +0.05 (17th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.01 (5th) | +0.05 (1st) |
| Offense success rate | 44% (22nd) | 44% (18th) |
The Chiefs won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Nov 23, 2025Week 12, 2025 | Chiefs 23, Colts 20at Kansas City |
| Sep 25, 2022Week 3, 2022 | Colts 20, Chiefs 17at Indianapolis |
| Oct 6, 2019Week 5, 2019 | Colts 19, Chiefs 13at Kansas City |
| Jan 12, 2019Divisional, 2018 | Chiefs 31, Colts 13at Kansas City |
| Oct 30, 2016Week 8, 2016 | Chiefs 30, Colts 14at Indianapolis |