4 of 4 models favor the Chiefs.
On average the models have the Chiefs by 8 points, a 74% win chance.
Early prediction, updates weekly until kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Chiefs by 8 | 74% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Chiefs by 6.7 | 70% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Chiefs by 9 | 78% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Chiefs by 8.5 | 73% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. Read in the week of the game. | Available game week | — |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Chiefs | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Not named yet. The quarterbacks we assume show here in game week: once every earlier game is in, or two days before Week 9's first kickoff.
The official Week 9 injury report isn't out yet. It shows here once nflverse has it, in the week of the game.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through Week 5 (the games played so far); league rank in brackets.
| Jets | Chiefs | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.01 (16th) | +0.12 (3rd) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.04 (22nd) | +0.11 (4th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.05 (7th) | −0.01 (14th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.03 (18th) | +0.15 (8th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.14 (22nd) | +0.04 (2nd) |
| Offense success rate | 42% (19th) | 47% (5th) |
The Chiefs won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Oct 1, 2023Week 4, 2023 | Chiefs 23, Jets 20at New York |
| Nov 1, 2020Week 8, 2020 | Chiefs 35, Jets 9at Kansas City |
| Dec 3, 2017Week 13, 2017 | Jets 38, Chiefs 31at New York |
| Sep 25, 2016Week 3, 2016 | Chiefs 24, Jets 3at Kansas City |
| Nov 2, 2014Week 9, 2014 | Chiefs 24, Jets 10at Kansas City |