3 of 4 models favor the Vikings.
On average the models have the Vikings by 0.4 points, a 51% win chance.
Early prediction, updates weekly until kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Vikings by 0.4 | 51% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Bills by 2.5 | 58% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Vikings by 1 | 54% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Vikings by 2.7 | 58% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. Read in the week of the game. | Available game week | — |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Vikings | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Not named yet. The quarterbacks we assume show here in game week: once every earlier game is in, or two days before Week 9's first kickoff.
The official Week 9 injury report isn't out yet. It shows here once nflverse has it, in the week of the game.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through Week 5 (the games played so far); league rank in brackets.
| Bills | Vikings | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.06 (9th) | +0.05 (10th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.17 (1st) | −0.08 (29th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.11 (31st) | −0.13 (1st) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.28 (2nd) | −0.02 (25th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | +0.01 (4th) | −0.18 (28th) |
| Offense success rate | 48% (2nd) | 36% (32nd) |
The Bills won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Nov 13, 2022Week 10, 2022 | Vikings 33, Bills 30at Buffalo |
| Sep 23, 2018Week 3, 2018 | Bills 27, Vikings 6at Minnesota |
| Oct 19, 2014Week 7, 2014 | Bills 17, Vikings 16at Buffalo |
| Dec 5, 2010Week 13, 2010 | Vikings 38, Bills 14at Minnesota |
| Oct 1, 2006Week 4, 2006 | Bills 17, Vikings 12at Buffalo |