5 of 5 models favor the Vikings.
On average the models have the Vikings by 8 points, a 74% win chance.
Final: Vikings 15, Dolphins 10.
Closest: Our model (Vikings by 2.2, missed by 2.8). 5 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 4 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Vikings won 15–10. Murray threw for 247 yards. Our call (Vikings, Strong) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Dolphins | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 198 | 336 |
| Passing yards | 77 | 213 |
| Rushing yards | 121 | 123 |
| Sacked | 2 (8 yards) | 4 (34 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Vikings by 8 ✓ | 74% | 3.0 |
| Our model Experimental ClosestOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Vikings by 2.2 ✓ | 57% | 2.8 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Vikings by 10.3 ✓ | 81% | 5.3 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Vikings by 9.4 ✓ | 76% | 4.4 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Vikings by 10.1 ✓ | 83% | 5.1 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Vikings ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Vikings by 10 | — | 5.0 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 4 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 4; league rank in brackets.
| Dolphins | Vikings | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.10 (28th) | +0.03 (12th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.05 (24th) | −0.07 (27th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.05 (25th) | −0.10 (1st) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.04 (19th) | −0.02 (24th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.19 (28th) | −0.14 (24th) |
| Offense success rate | 39% (31st) | 36% (32nd) |
The Dolphins won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Oct 16, 2022Week 6, 2022 | Vikings 24, Dolphins 16at Miami |
| Dec 16, 2018Week 15, 2018 | Vikings 41, Dolphins 17at Minnesota |
| Dec 21, 2014Week 16, 2014 | Dolphins 37, Vikings 35at Miami |
| Sep 19, 2010Week 2, 2010 | Dolphins 14, Vikings 10at Minnesota |
| Nov 19, 2006Week 11, 2006 | Dolphins 24, Vikings 20at Miami |