2 of 5 models favor the Packers.
On average the models have the Packers by 0.9 points, a 53% win chance.
Final: Vikings 39, Packers 22.
Closest: Elo (Vikings by 2.6, missed by 14.4). 3 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was wrong.
Reconstructed: Week 1 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Vikings won 39–22. Wentz threw for 133 yards and 3 touchdowns. Our call (Packers, Toss-up) was wrong.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Packers | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 419 | 239 |
| Passing yards | 353 | 132 |
| Rushing yards | 66 | 107 |
| Sacked | 4 (34 yards) | 3 (19 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 1 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Packers by 0.9 ✗ | 53% | 17.9 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Packers by 5.6 ✗ | 67% | 22.6 |
| Elo ClosestEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Vikings by 2.6 ✓ | 59% | 14.4 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Vikings by 1.4 ✓ | 54% | 15.6 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Packers by 1.9 ✗ | 58% | 18.9 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Vikings ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Vikings by 1.5 | — | 15.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 1 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
The Vikings won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Jan 4, 2026Week 18, 2025 | Vikings 16, Packers 3at Minnesota |
| Nov 23, 2025Week 12, 2025 | Packers 23, Vikings 6at Green Bay |
| Dec 29, 2024Week 17, 2024 | Vikings 27, Packers 25at Minnesota |
| Sep 29, 2024Week 4, 2024 | Vikings 31, Packers 29at Green Bay |
| Dec 31, 2023Week 17, 2023 | Packers 33, Vikings 10at Minnesota |