5 of 5 models favor the Bears.
On average the models have the Bears by 3.4 points, a 62% win chance.
Final: Vikings 9, Bears 3.
Closest: Elo (Bears by 0.9, missed by 6.9). 0 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was wrong.
Reconstructed: Week 2 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Vikings won 9–3. Wentz threw for 143 yards. Our call (Bears, Lean) was wrong.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Vikings | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 246 | 297 |
| Passing yards | 127 | 163 |
| Rushing yards | 119 | 134 |
| Sacked | 3 (16 yards) | 4 (29 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Bears by 3.4 ✗ | 62% | 9.4 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Bears by 5.4 ✗ | 66% | 11.4 |
| Elo ClosestEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Bears by 0.9 ✗ | 53% | 6.9 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Bears by 2.1 ✗ | 56% | 8.1 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Bears by 5.3 ✗ | 71% | 11.3 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Bears ✗ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Bears by 4.5 | — | 10.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 2 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
No one listed.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 2; league rank in brackets.
| Vikings | Bears | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.03 (13th) | +0.07 (7th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | 0.00 (19th) | +0.12 (1st) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.03 (8th) | +0.06 (25th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.05 (16th) | +0.18 (3rd) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.07 (24th) | +0.05 (2nd) |
| Offense success rate | 42% (31st) | 47% (4th) |
The Vikings won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Nov 16, 2025Week 11, 2025 | Bears 19, Vikings 17at Minnesota |
| Sep 8, 2025Week 1, 2025 | Vikings 27, Bears 24at Chicago |
| Dec 16, 2024Week 15, 2024 | Vikings 30, Bears 12at Minnesota |
| Nov 24, 2024Week 12, 2024 | Vikings 30, Bears 27at Chicago |
| Nov 27, 2023Week 12, 2023 | Bears 12, Vikings 10at Minnesota |