5 of 5 models favor the Packers.
On average the models have the Packers by 7.7 points, a 74% win chance.
Final: Falcons 35, Packers 14.
Closest of our models: Elo (Packers by 5.7, missed by 26.7). 0 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was wrong.
Reconstructed: Week 3 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Falcons won 35–14. Penix threw for 256 yards and 1 touchdown. Our call (Packers, Strong) was wrong.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Falcons | Packers |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 498 | 328 |
| Passing yards | 256 | 311 |
| Rushing yards | 242 | 17 |
| Sacked | 0 | 1 (1 yard) |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 1 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Packers by 7.7 ✗ | 74% | 28.7 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Packers by 10.4 ✗ | 79% | 31.4 |
| Elo ClosestEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Packers by 5.7 ✗ | 69% | 26.7 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Packers by 7.7 ✗ | 72% | 28.7 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Packers by 6.9 ✗ | 74% | 27.9 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Packers ✗ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Packers by 4.5 | — | 25.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 3 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 3; league rank in brackets.
| Falcons | Packers | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.17 (32nd) | −0.02 (17th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.20 (32nd) | −0.05 (27th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.02 (11th) | −0.04 (10th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | −0.24 (32nd) | +0.04 (22nd) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.15 (27th) | −0.20 (31st) |
| Offense success rate | 40% (32nd) | 42% (25th) |
The Falcons won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Sep 17, 2023Week 2, 2023 | Falcons 25, Packers 24at Atlanta |
| Oct 5, 2020Week 4, 2020 | Packers 30, Falcons 16at Green Bay |
| Dec 9, 2018Week 14, 2018 | Packers 34, Falcons 20at Green Bay |
| Sep 17, 2017Week 2, 2017 | Falcons 34, Packers 23at Atlanta |
| Jan 22, 2017Conference title game, 2016 | Falcons 44, Packers 21at Atlanta |