4 of 4 models favor the Bengals.
On average the models have the Bengals by 2.2 points, a 57% win chance.
Early prediction, updates weekly until kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Bengals by 2.2 | 57% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Bengals by 3.1 | 60% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Bengals by 2 | 57% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Bengals by 1.6 | 55% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. Read in the week of the game. | Available game week | — |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Bengals | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Not named yet. The quarterbacks we assume show here in game week: once every earlier game is in, or two days before Week 9's first kickoff.
The official Week 9 injury report isn't out yet. It shows here once nflverse has it, in the week of the game.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through Week 5 (the games played so far); league rank in brackets.
| Bengals | Falcons | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.08 (5th) | +0.01 (15th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.07 (8th) | −0.02 (17th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | 0.00 (17th) | −0.04 (10th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.14 (11th) | −0.06 (29th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.05 (13th) | +0.02 (3rd) |
| Offense success rate | 46% (10th) | 45% (12th) |
The Bengals won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Oct 23, 2022Week 7, 2022 | Bengals 35, Falcons 17at Cincinnati |
| Sep 30, 2018Week 4, 2018 | Bengals 37, Falcons 36at Atlanta |
| Sep 14, 2014Week 2, 2014 | Bengals 24, Falcons 10at Cincinnati |
| Oct 24, 2010Week 7, 2010 | Falcons 39, Bengals 32at Atlanta |
| Oct 29, 2006Week 8, 2006 | Falcons 29, Bengals 27at Cincinnati |