5 of 5 models favor the Steelers.
On average the models have the Steelers by 4.2 points, a 63% win chance.
Final: Steelers 20, Falcons 13.
Closest of our models: Our model (Steelers by 6.4, missed by 0.6). 5 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 1 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Steelers won 20–13. Rodgers threw for 221 yards and 1 touchdown. Our call (Steelers, Lean) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Falcons | Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 238 | 264 |
| Passing yards | 118 | 206 |
| Rushing yards | 120 | 58 |
| Sacked | 4 (25 yards) | 2 (15 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 2 | 0 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Steelers by 4.2 ✓ | 63% | 2.8 |
| Our model Experimental ClosestOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Steelers by 6.4 ✓ | 69% | 0.6 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Steelers by 3.1 ✓ | 61% | 3.9 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Steelers by 3.1 ✓ | 59% | 3.9 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Steelers by 4.1 ✓ | 65% | 2.9 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Steelers ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Steelers by 6.5 | — | 0.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 1 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
The Steelers won 5 of the last 5 meetings.
| Sep 8, 2024Week 1, 2024 | Steelers 18, Falcons 10at Atlanta |
| Dec 4, 2022Week 13, 2022 | Steelers 19, Falcons 16at Atlanta |
| Oct 7, 2018Week 5, 2018 | Steelers 41, Falcons 17at Pittsburgh |
| Dec 14, 2014Week 15, 2014 | Steelers 27, Falcons 20at Atlanta |
| Sep 12, 2010Week 1, 2010 | Steelers 15, Falcons 9at Pittsburgh |