5 of 5 models favor the Saints.
On average the models have the Saints by 2.4 points, a 58% win chance.
Final: Falcons 45, Saints 24.
Closest: Our model (Saints by 0.7, missed by 21.7). 0 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was wrong.
Reconstructed: Week 4 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Falcons won 45–24. Penix threw for 223 yards and 1 touchdown. Our call (Saints, Toss-up) was wrong.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Falcons | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 420 | 320 |
| Passing yards | 215 | 270 |
| Rushing yards | 205 | 50 |
| Sacked | 1 (8 yards) | 2 (16 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Saints by 2.4 ✗ | 58% | 23.4 |
| Our model Experimental ClosestOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Saints by 0.7 ✗ | 52% | 21.7 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Saints by 0.9 ✗ | 53% | 21.9 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Saints by 4.6 ✗ | 63% | 25.6 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Saints by 3.3 ✗ | 62% | 24.3 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Saints ✗ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Saints by 1.5 | — | 22.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 4 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 4; league rank in brackets.
| Falcons | Saints | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.09 (26th) | −0.01 (18th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.10 (31st) | +0.01 (13th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.01 (14th) | +0.02 (21st) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | −0.18 (32nd) | +0.05 (18th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.02 (5th) | −0.06 (13th) |
| Offense success rate | 45% (14th) | 46% (10th) |
The Falcons won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Jan 4, 2026Week 18, 2025 | Falcons 19, Saints 17at Atlanta |
| Nov 23, 2025Week 12, 2025 | Falcons 24, Saints 10at New Orleans |
| Nov 10, 2024Week 10, 2024 | Saints 20, Falcons 17at New Orleans |
| Sep 29, 2024Week 4, 2024 | Falcons 26, Saints 24at Atlanta |
| Jan 7, 2024Week 18, 2023 | Saints 48, Falcons 17at New Orleans |