3 of 5 models favor the Falcons.
On average the models have the Falcons by 0.5 points, a 51% win chance.
Final: Panthers 34, Falcons 3.
Closest: ESPN FPI (Panthers by 2.9, missed by 28.1). 2 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was wrong.
Reconstructed: Week 2 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Panthers won 34–3. Young threw for 287 yards and 3 touchdowns. Our call (Falcons, Toss-up) was wrong.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Panthers | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 340 | 286 |
| Passing yards | 272 | 129 |
| Rushing yards | 68 | 157 |
| Sacked | 2 (15 yards) | 3 (16 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 3 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Falcons by 0.5 ✗ | 51% | 31.5 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Panthers by 1.7 ✓ | 55% | 29.3 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Falcons by 3.6 ✗ | 63% | 34.6 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Falcons by 3.1 ✗ | 59% | 34.1 |
| ESPN FPI ClosestESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Panthers by 2.9 ✓ | 61% | 28.1 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Falcons ✗ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Panthers by 2.5 | — | 28.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 2 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 2; league rank in brackets.
| Panthers | Falcons | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.07 (26th) | 0.00 (16th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.06 (8th) | −0.07 (31st) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.12 (32nd) | −0.07 (1st) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.13 (6th) | −0.08 (32nd) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.07 (23rd) | −0.05 (18th) |
| Offense success rate | 46% (8th) | 43% (26th) |
The Panthers won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Nov 16, 2025Week 11, 2025 | Panthers 30, Falcons 27at Atlanta |
| Sep 21, 2025Week 3, 2025 | Panthers 30, Falcons 0at Carolina |
| Jan 5, 2025Week 18, 2024 | Panthers 44, Falcons 38at Atlanta |
| Oct 13, 2024Week 6, 2024 | Falcons 38, Panthers 20at Carolina |
| Dec 17, 2023Week 15, 2023 | Panthers 9, Falcons 7at Carolina |