4 of 5 models favor the Bears.
On average the models have the Bears by 0.3 points, a 52% win chance.
Updated until kickoff, then frozen.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
Weather at kickoff: Roof may be closed. Outside: 61°F, sunny, wind 15 mph from the east, little chance of rain.
Forecast: National Weather Service, read Tue, Oct 13 · 10:50 PM CT.
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Bears by 0.3 | 52% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Falcons by 5.2 | 66% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Bears by 1 | 54% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Bears by 1.6 | 55% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Bears by 3.9 | 65% |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Bears | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Bears by 3 | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Injury statuses as of .
The official injury report, as of Tue, Oct 13 · 9:57 AM CT: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet.
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 6; league rank in brackets.
| Bears | Falcons | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.02 (14th) | +0.01 (15th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.05 (11th) | −0.02 (17th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.02 (20th) | −0.04 (10th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.10 (14th) | −0.06 (29th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.02 (8th) | +0.02 (3rd) |
| Offense success rate | 46% (7th) | 45% (12th) |
The Bears won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Dec 31, 2023Week 17, 2023 | Bears 37, Falcons 17at Chicago |
| Nov 20, 2022Week 11, 2022 | Falcons 27, Bears 24at Atlanta |
| Sep 27, 2020Week 3, 2020 | Bears 30, Falcons 26at Atlanta |
| Sep 10, 2017Week 1, 2017 | Falcons 23, Bears 17at Chicago |
| Oct 12, 2014Week 6, 2014 | Bears 27, Falcons 13at Atlanta |