4 of 5 models favor the Bears.
On average the models have the Bears by 1.7 points, a 56% win chance.
Final: Bears 59, Panthers 37.
Closest of our models: ESPN FPI (Bears by 2.6, missed by 19.4). 4 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 1 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Bears won 59–37. Williams threw for 269 yards and 2 touchdowns. Our call (Bears, Toss-up) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Bears | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 552 | 478 |
| Passing yards | 261 | 353 |
| Rushing yards | 291 | 125 |
| Sacked | 2 (8 yards) | 2 (8 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Bears by 1.7 ✓ | 56% | 20.3 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Bears by 1.5 ✓ | 55% | 20.5 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Bears by 2.4 ✓ | 58% | 19.6 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Bears by 0.4 ✓ | 51% | 21.6 |
| ESPN FPI ClosestESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Bears by 2.6 ✓ | 60% | 19.4 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Panthers ✗ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Bears by 3 | — | 19.0 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 1 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
The Bears won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Oct 6, 2024Week 5, 2024 | Bears 36, Panthers 10at Chicago |
| Nov 9, 2023Week 10, 2023 | Bears 16, Panthers 13at Chicago |
| Oct 18, 2020Week 6, 2020 | Bears 23, Panthers 16at Carolina |
| Oct 22, 2017Week 7, 2017 | Bears 17, Panthers 3at Chicago |
| Oct 5, 2014Week 5, 2014 | Panthers 31, Bears 24at Carolina |