4 of 4 models favor the Seahawks.
On average the models have the Seahawks by 5.5 points, a 67% win chance.
Early prediction, updates weekly until kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Seahawks by 5.5 | 67% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Seahawks by 6.7 | 70% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Seahawks by 6.7 | 72% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Seahawks by 3.1 | 59% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. Read in the week of the game. | Available game week | — |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Seahawks | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Not named yet. The quarterbacks we assume show here in game week: once every earlier game is in, or two days before Week 8's first kickoff.
The official Week 8 injury report isn't out yet. It shows here once nflverse has it, in the week of the game.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through Week 5 (the games played so far); league rank in brackets.
| Bears | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.02 (14th) | +0.03 (12th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.05 (11th) | −0.05 (25th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.02 (20th) | −0.09 (2nd) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.10 (14th) | +0.06 (16th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.02 (8th) | −0.21 (30th) |
| Offense success rate | 46% (7th) | 42% (22nd) |
The Seahawks won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Dec 26, 2024Week 17, 2024 | Seahawks 6, Bears 3at Chicago |
| Dec 26, 2021Week 16, 2021 | Bears 25, Seahawks 24at Seattle |
| Sep 17, 2018Week 2, 2018 | Bears 24, Seahawks 17at Chicago |
| Sep 27, 2015Week 3, 2015 | Seahawks 26, Bears 0at Seattle |
| Dec 2, 2012Week 13, 2012 | Seahawks 23, Bears 17at Chicago |