4 of 5 models favor the Bears.
On average the models have the Bears by 6.2 points, a 69% win chance.
Final: Bears 23, Jets 12.
Closest: SRS (Bears by 10.9, missed by 0.1). 4 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 4 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Bears won 23–12. Bagent threw for 268 yards. Our call (Bears, Lean) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Jets | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 157 | 492 |
| Passing yards | 98 | 260 |
| Rushing yards | 59 | 232 |
| Sacked | 3 (21 yards) | 1 (8 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Bears by 6.2 ✓ | 69% | 4.8 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Jets by 0.1 ✗ | 50% | 11.1 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Bears by 9.3 ✓ | 79% | 1.7 |
| SRS ClosestSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Bears by 10.9 ✓ | 79% | 0.1 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Bears by 4.8 ✓ | 68% | 6.2 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Bears ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Bears by 3.5 | — | 7.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 4 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 4; league rank in brackets.
| Jets | Bears | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.01 (13th) | +0.11 (4th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.01 (18th) | +0.10 (4th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.01 (11th) | −0.01 (12th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.11 (13th) | +0.18 (5th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.18 (27th) | −0.01 (4th) |
| Offense success rate | 43% (17th) | 46% (8th) |
The Bears won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Nov 27, 2022Week 12, 2022 | Jets 31, Bears 10at New York |
| Oct 28, 2018Week 8, 2018 | Bears 24, Jets 10at Chicago |
| Sep 22, 2014Week 3, 2014 | Bears 27, Jets 19at New York |
| Dec 26, 2010Week 16, 2010 | Bears 38, Jets 34at Chicago |
| Nov 19, 2006Week 11, 2006 | Bears 10, Jets 0at New York |