3 of 5 models favor the Rams.
On average the models have the Rams by 1.8 points, a 56% win chance.
Final: Broncos 30, Rams 26.
Closest: Elo (Broncos by 1.7, missed by 2.3). 2 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was wrong.
Reconstructed: Week 3 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Broncos won 30–26. Nix threw for 186 yards and 2 touchdowns. Our call (Rams, Toss-up) was wrong.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Rams | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 482 | 257 |
| Passing yards | 366 | 179 |
| Rushing yards | 116 | 78 |
| Sacked | 4 (24 yards) | 1 (7 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 2 | 1 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Rams by 1.8 ✗ | 56% | 5.8 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Rams by 2.1 ✗ | 56% | 6.1 |
| Elo ClosestEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Broncos by 1.7 ✓ | 56% | 2.3 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Rams by 2.8 ✗ | 58% | 6.8 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Rams by 3.9 ✗ | 64% | 7.9 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Broncos ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Broncos by 1.5 | — | 2.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 3 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 3; league rank in brackets.
| Rams | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.08 (6th) | −0.04 (19th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | 0.00 (17th) | −0.04 (24th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.09 (4th) | 0.00 (16th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.08 (14th) | +0.01 (26th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.12 (20th) | −0.11 (14th) |
| Offense success rate | 46% (8th) | 43% (22nd) |
The Rams won 5 of the last 5 meetings.
| Dec 25, 2022Week 16, 2022 | Rams 51, Broncos 14at Los Angeles |
| Oct 14, 2018Week 6, 2018 | Rams 23, Broncos 20at Denver |
| Nov 16, 2014Week 11, 2014 | Rams 22, Broncos 7at Los Angeles |
| Nov 28, 2010Week 12, 2010 | Rams 36, Broncos 33at Denver |
| Sep 10, 2006Week 1, 2006 | Rams 18, Broncos 10at Los Angeles |