5 of 5 models favor the Bills.
On average the models have the Bills by 7.7 points, a 74% win chance.
Final: Bills 24, Chargers 16.
Closest: ESPN FPI (Bills by 8.2, missed by 0.2). 5 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 3 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Bills won 24–16. Allen threw for 204 yards. Our call (Bills, Strong) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Chargers | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 348 | 350 |
| Passing yards | 217 | 174 |
| Rushing yards | 131 | 176 |
| Sacked | 2 (9 yards) | 4 (30 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 2 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Bills by 7.7 ✓ | 74% | 0.3 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Bills by 6.5 ✓ | 69% | 1.5 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Bills by 9.3 ✓ | 79% | 1.3 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Bills by 6.8 ✓ | 69% | 1.2 |
| ESPN FPI ClosestESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Bills by 8.2 ✓ | 78% | 0.2 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Bills ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Bills by 7 | — | 1.0 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 3 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 3; league rank in brackets.
| Chargers | Bills | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.13 (31st) | +0.08 (7th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.10 (30th) | +0.16 (1st) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.04 (22nd) | +0.08 (29th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | 0.00 (27th) | +0.29 (2nd) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.24 (32nd) | −0.04 (6th) |
| Offense success rate | 41% (26th) | 47% (4th) |
The Chargers won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Dec 23, 2023Week 16, 2023 | Bills 24, Chargers 22at Los Angeles |
| Nov 29, 2020Week 12, 2020 | Bills 27, Chargers 17at Buffalo |
| Sep 16, 2018Week 2, 2018 | Chargers 31, Bills 20at Buffalo |
| Nov 19, 2017Week 11, 2017 | Chargers 54, Bills 24at Los Angeles |
| Sep 21, 2014Week 3, 2014 | Chargers 22, Bills 10at Buffalo |