3 of 5 models favor the Panthers.
On average the models have the Panthers by 2 points, a 57% win chance.
Final: Browns 21, Panthers 18.
Closest: Elo (Browns by 0.7, missed by 2.3). 2 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was wrong.
Reconstructed: Week 3 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Browns won 21–18. Watson threw for 144 yards and 2 touchdowns. Our call (Panthers, Toss-up) was wrong.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Panthers | Browns |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 360 | 259 |
| Passing yards | 262 | 127 |
| Rushing yards | 98 | 132 |
| Sacked | 3 (29 yards) | 2 (17 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 0 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Panthers by 2 ✗ | 57% | 5.0 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Panthers by 3.1 ✗ | 60% | 6.1 |
| Elo ClosestEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Browns by 0.7 ✓ | 53% | 2.3 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Panthers by 1.9 ✗ | 56% | 4.9 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Panthers by 3.9 ✗ | 64% | 6.8 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Browns ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Panthers by 2.5 | — | 5.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 3 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 3; league rank in brackets.
| Panthers | Browns | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.07 (10th) | −0.09 (26th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.09 (5th) | −0.04 (25th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.02 (19th) | +0.04 (24th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.20 (4th) | +0.05 (18th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.11 (15th) | −0.20 (30th) |
| Offense success rate | 46% (7th) | 44% (16th) |
The Browns won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Sep 11, 2022Week 1, 2022 | Browns 26, Panthers 24at Carolina |
| Dec 9, 2018Week 14, 2018 | Browns 26, Panthers 20at Cleveland |
| Dec 21, 2014Week 16, 2014 | Panthers 17, Browns 13at Carolina |
| Nov 28, 2010Week 12, 2010 | Browns 24, Panthers 23at Cleveland |
| Oct 8, 2006Week 5, 2006 | Panthers 20, Browns 12at Carolina |