4 of 5 models favor the Giants.
On average the models have the Giants by 2.7 points, a 59% win chance.
Final: Giants 12, Titans 7.
Closest: SRS (Giants by 4.2, missed by 0.8). 4 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 3 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Giants won 12–7. Winston threw for 118 yards. Our call (Giants, Toss-up) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Titans | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 262 | 238 |
| Passing yards | 181 | 100 |
| Rushing yards | 81 | 138 |
| Sacked | 0 | 3 (18 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 0 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Giants by 2.7 ✓ | 59% | 2.3 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Giants by 2.1 ✓ | 57% | 2.9 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Giants by 5.9 ✓ | 70% | 0.9 |
| SRS ClosestSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Giants by 4.2 ✓ | 62% | 0.8 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Titans by 1.3 ✗ | 54% | 6.3 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Giants ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Giants by 2.5 | — | 2.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 3 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 3; league rank in brackets.
| Titans | Giants | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.06 (23rd) | −0.12 (30th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | 0.00 (16th) | −0.01 (18th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.05 (25th) | +0.11 (31st) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.03 (23rd) | +0.07 (16th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.06 (7th) | −0.11 (18th) |
| Offense success rate | 44% (13th) | 43% (20th) |
The Titans won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Sep 11, 2022Week 1, 2022 | Giants 21, Titans 20at Tennessee |
| Dec 16, 2018Week 15, 2018 | Titans 17, Giants 0at New York |
| Dec 7, 2014Week 14, 2014 | Giants 36, Titans 7at Tennessee |
| Sep 26, 2010Week 3, 2010 | Titans 29, Giants 10at New York |
| Nov 26, 2006Week 12, 2006 | Titans 24, Giants 21at Tennessee |