4 of 5 models favor the Saints.
On average the models have the Saints by 3.5 points, a 61% win chance.
Final: Raiders 35, Saints 27.
Closest: Elo (Saints by 3.4) and SRS (Saints by 3.4), each missed by 11.4. 1 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was wrong.
Reconstructed: Week 3 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Raiders won 35–27. Cousins threw for 248 yards and 3 touchdowns. Our call (Saints, Lean) was wrong.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Raiders | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 340 | 381 |
| Passing yards | 227 | 233 |
| Rushing yards | 113 | 148 |
| Sacked | 3 (21 yards) | 2 (22 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Saints by 3.5 ✗ | 61% | 11.5 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Saints by 3.5 ✗ | 61% | 11.5 |
| Elo ClosestEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Saints by 3.4 ✗ | 62% | 11.4 |
| SRS ClosestSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Saints by 3.4 ✗ | 60% | 11.4 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Saints by 3.5 ✗ | 63% | 11.5 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Raiders ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Saints by 3.5 | — | 11.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 3 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 3; league rank in brackets.
| Raiders | Saints | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.03 (14th) | +0.02 (15th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.06 (28th) | +0.02 (11th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.09 (2nd) | 0.00 (15th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.03 (24th) | +0.09 (12th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.17 (28th) | −0.11 (17th) |
| Offense success rate | 41% (28th) | 43% (19th) |
The Raiders won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Dec 29, 2024Week 17, 2024 | Raiders 25, Saints 10at New Orleans |
| Oct 30, 2022Week 8, 2022 | Saints 24, Raiders 0at New Orleans |
| Sep 21, 2020Week 2, 2020 | Raiders 34, Saints 24at Las Vegas |
| Sep 11, 2016Week 1, 2016 | Raiders 35, Saints 34at New Orleans |
| Nov 18, 2012Week 11, 2012 | Saints 38, Raiders 17at Las Vegas |