5 of 5 models favor the Lions.
On average the models have the Lions by 6.6 points, a 71% win chance.
Final: Lions 31, Jets 24.
Closest of our models: ESPN FPI (Lions by 7.1, missed by 0.1). 5 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 3 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Lions won 31–24. Goff threw for 269 yards and 2 touchdowns. Our call (Lions, Lean) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Jets | Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 335 | 381 |
| Passing yards | 277 | 250 |
| Rushing yards | 58 | 131 |
| Sacked | 5 (44 yards) | 2 (19 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Lions by 6.6 ✓ | 71% | 0.4 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Lions by 5.1 ✓ | 65% | 1.9 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Lions by 8 ✓ | 76% | 1.0 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Lions by 6.1 ✓ | 67% | 0.9 |
| ESPN FPI ClosestESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Lions by 7.1 ✓ | 75% | 0.1 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Lions ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Lions by 7 | — | 0.0 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 3 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 3; league rank in brackets.
| Jets | Lions | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.07 (8th) | −0.02 (18th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.01 (12th) | +0.04 (10th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.06 (6th) | +0.06 (27th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.12 (10th) | +0.14 (9th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.14 (26th) | −0.12 (22nd) |
| Offense success rate | 44% (11th) | 44% (17th) |
The Jets won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Dec 18, 2022Week 15, 2022 | Lions 20, Jets 17at New York |
| Sep 10, 2018Week 1, 2018 | Jets 48, Lions 17at Detroit |
| Sep 28, 2014Week 4, 2014 | Lions 24, Jets 17at New York |
| Nov 7, 2010Week 9, 2010 | Jets 23, Lions 20at Detroit |
| Oct 22, 2006Week 7, 2006 | Jets 31, Lions 24at New York |