5 of 5 models favor the 49ers.
On average the models have the 49ers by 9.9 points, a 79% win chance.
Final: 49ers 36, Cardinals 30.
Closest: Our model (49ers by 6.5, missed by 0.5). 5 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 3 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The 49ers won 36–30. Purdy threw for 297 yards and 4 touchdowns. Our call (49ers, Strong) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Cardinals | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 365 | 437 |
| Passing yards | 272 | 297 |
| Rushing yards | 93 | 140 |
| Sacked | 2 (8 yards) | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | 49ers by 9.9 ✓ | 79% | 3.9 |
| Our model Experimental ClosestOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | 49ers by 6.5 ✓ | 69% | 0.5 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | 49ers by 9 ✓ | 79% | 3.0 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | 49ers by 10.4 ✓ | 78% | 4.4 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | 49ers by 13.7 ✓ | 90% | 7.7 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | 49ers ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | 49ers by 7.5 | — | 1.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 3 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 3; league rank in brackets.
| Cardinals | 49ers | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | 0.00 (16th) | +0.21 (1st) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.01 (20th) | +0.16 (2nd) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.01 (14th) | −0.06 (8th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.04 (21st) | +0.32 (1st) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.10 (12th) | −0.07 (9th) |
| Offense success rate | 43% (18th) | 50% (1st) |
The 49ers won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Nov 16, 2025Week 11, 2025 | 49ers 41, Cardinals 22at Arizona |
| Sep 21, 2025Week 3, 2025 | 49ers 16, Cardinals 15at San Francisco |
| Jan 5, 2025Week 18, 2024 | Cardinals 47, 49ers 24at Arizona |
| Oct 6, 2024Week 5, 2024 | Cardinals 24, 49ers 23at San Francisco |
| Dec 17, 2023Week 15, 2023 | 49ers 45, Cardinals 29at Arizona |