3 of 5 models favor the Jaguars.
On average the models have the Jaguars by 0.6 points, a 52% win chance.
Final: Jaguars 35, Patriots 6.
Closest of our models: ESPN FPI (Jaguars by 1.8, missed by 27.2). 3 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 3 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Jaguars won 35–6. Lawrence threw for 182 yards and 3 touchdowns. Our call (Jaguars, Toss-up) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Patriots | Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 317 | 315 |
| Passing yards | 234 | 178 |
| Rushing yards | 83 | 137 |
| Sacked | 3 (11 yards) | 1 (4 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 2 | 1 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Jaguars by 0.6 ✓ | 52% | 28.4 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Patriots by 0.7 ✗ | 52% | 29.7 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Patriots by 0.1 ✗ | 50% | 29.1 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Jaguars by 1.5 ✓ | 55% | 27.5 |
| ESPN FPI ClosestESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Jaguars by 1.8 ✓ | 57% | 27.2 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Jaguars ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Jaguars by 3 | — | 26.0 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 3 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 3; league rank in brackets.
| Patriots | Jaguars | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.05 (12th) | +0.05 (13th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.01 (19th) | +0.06 (9th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.06 (7th) | +0.01 (18th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.08 (15th) | +0.17 (7th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.14 (25th) | −0.08 (10th) |
| Offense success rate | 44% (15th) | 48% (3rd) |
The Patriots won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Oct 20, 2024Week 7, 2024 | Jaguars 32, Patriots 16neutral site |
| Jan 2, 2022Week 17, 2021 | Patriots 50, Jaguars 10at New England |
| Sep 16, 2018Week 2, 2018 | Jaguars 31, Patriots 20at Jacksonville |
| Jan 21, 2018Conference title game, 2017 | Patriots 24, Jaguars 20at New England |
| Sep 27, 2015Week 3, 2015 | Patriots 51, Jaguars 17at New England |