4 of 5 models favor the Ravens.
On average the models have the Ravens by 1.9 points, a 56% win chance.
Final: Ravens 34, Cowboys 31.
Closest of our models: SRS (Ravens by 3, missed by 0.0). 4 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 3 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Ravens won 34–31. Jackson threw for 186 yards and 2 touchdowns. Our call (Ravens, Toss-up) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Ravens | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 378 | 415 |
| Passing yards | 186 | 267 |
| Rushing yards | 192 | 148 |
| Sacked | 0 | 1 (9 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Ravens by 1.9 ✓ | 56% | 1.1 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Ravens by 0.3 ✓ | 51% | 2.7 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Ravens by 2.9 ✓ | 60% | 0.1 |
| SRS ClosestSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Ravens by 3 ✓ | 59% | 0.0 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Ravens by 1.2 ✓ | 55% | 1.8 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Cowboys ✗ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Ravens by 3 | — | 0.0 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 3 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 3; league rank in brackets.
| Ravens | Cowboys | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.11 (3rd) | −0.05 (21st) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.09 (4th) | +0.07 (7th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.02 (12th) | +0.12 (32nd) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.15 (8th) | +0.17 (6th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | 0.00 (3rd) | −0.11 (16th) |
| Offense success rate | 48% (2nd) | 46% (5th) |
The Ravens won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Sep 22, 2024Week 3, 2024 | Ravens 28, Cowboys 25at Dallas |
| Dec 8, 2020Week 13, 2020 | Ravens 34, Cowboys 17at Baltimore |
| Nov 20, 2016Week 11, 2016 | Cowboys 27, Ravens 17at Dallas |
| Oct 14, 2012Week 6, 2012 | Ravens 31, Cowboys 29at Baltimore |
| Dec 20, 2008Week 16, 2008 | Ravens 33, Cowboys 24at Dallas |