3 of 5 models favor the Bengals.
On average the models have the Bengals by 0.7 points, a 53% win chance.
Final: Steelers 30, Bengals 27.
Closest: Elo (Steelers by 0.5, missed by 2.5). 1 of 4 models named the winner.
Our call was wrong.
Reconstructed: Week 3 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Steelers won 30–27. Rodgers threw for 292 yards and 3 touchdowns. Our call (Bengals, Toss-up) was wrong.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Bengals | Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 352 | 411 |
| Passing yards | 269 | 273 |
| Rushing yards | 83 | 138 |
| Sacked | 1 (13 yards) | 2 (19 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Bengals by 0.7 ✗ | 53% | 3.7 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Bengals by 0.2 ✗ | 51% | 3.2 |
| Elo ClosestEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Steelers by 0.5 ✓ | 52% | 2.5 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Even | 50% | 3.0 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Bengals by 3 ✗ | 61% | 6.0 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Bengals ✗ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Bengals by 3.5 | — | 6.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 3 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 3; league rank in brackets.
| Bengals | Steelers | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.05 (11th) | −0.10 (29th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.03 (23rd) | −0.15 (31st) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.08 (5th) | −0.04 (9th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | 0.00 (28th) | −0.16 (31st) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.06 (8th) | −0.12 (19th) |
| Offense success rate | 42% (24th) | 40% (30th) |
The Steelers won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Nov 16, 2025Week 11, 2025 | Steelers 34, Bengals 12at Pittsburgh |
| Oct 16, 2025Week 7, 2025 | Bengals 33, Steelers 31at Cincinnati |
| Jan 4, 2025Week 18, 2024 | Bengals 19, Steelers 17at Pittsburgh |
| Dec 1, 2024Week 13, 2024 | Steelers 44, Bengals 38at Cincinnati |
| Dec 23, 2023Week 16, 2023 | Steelers 34, Bengals 11at Pittsburgh |