5 of 5 models favor the Eagles.
On average the models have the Eagles by 4.4 points, a 64% win chance.
Final: Eagles 24, Commanders 22.
Closest: Our model (Eagles by 1.7, missed by 0.3). 5 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 1 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Eagles won 24–22. Hurts threw for 203 yards and 3 touchdowns. Our call (Eagles, Lean) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Commanders | Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 295 | 318 |
| Passing yards | 163 | 182 |
| Rushing yards | 132 | 136 |
| Sacked | 1 (1 yard) | 3 (21 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Eagles by 4.4 ✓ | 64% | 2.4 |
| Our model Experimental ClosestOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Eagles by 1.7 ✓ | 55% | 0.3 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Eagles by 5.5 ✓ | 69% | 3.5 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Eagles by 5.7 ✓ | 66% | 3.7 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Eagles by 4.8 ✓ | 66% | 2.8 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Eagles ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Eagles by 6 | — | 4.0 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 1 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
The Eagles won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Jan 4, 2026Week 18, 2025 | Commanders 24, Eagles 17at Philadelphia |
| Dec 20, 2025Week 16, 2025 | Eagles 29, Commanders 18at Washington |
| Jan 26, 2025Conference title game, 2024 | Eagles 55, Commanders 23at Philadelphia |
| Dec 22, 2024Week 16, 2024 | Commanders 36, Eagles 33at Washington |
| Nov 14, 2024Week 11, 2024 | Eagles 26, Commanders 18at Philadelphia |