5 of 5 models favor the 49ers.
On average the models have the 49ers by 10.9 points, a 82% win chance.
Updated until kickoff, then frozen.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
Weather at kickoff: 63°F, wind 15 mph from the west-northwest, 24% chance of rain.
Forecast: National Weather Service, read Tue, Oct 13 · 10:50 PM CT.
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | 49ers by 10.9 | 82% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | 49ers by 8.8 | 75% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | 49ers by 10.9 | 83% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | 49ers by 12.4 | 82% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | 49ers by 11.3 | 86% |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | 49ers | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | 49ers by 7.5 | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Injury statuses as of .
The official injury report, as of Tue, Oct 13 · 9:57 AM CT: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet.
And 4 more on the report.
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 6; league rank in brackets.
| Commanders | 49ers | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.09 (26th) | +0.19 (1st) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.04 (21st) | +0.16 (2nd) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.06 (25th) | −0.03 (11th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.03 (19th) | +0.31 (1st) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.14 (23rd) | −0.05 (14th) |
| Offense success rate | 40% (28th) | 51% (1st) |
The 49ers won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Dec 31, 2023Week 17, 2023 | 49ers 27, Commanders 10at Washington |
| Dec 24, 2022Week 16, 2022 | 49ers 37, Commanders 20at San Francisco |
| Dec 13, 2020Week 14, 2020 | Commanders 23, 49ers 15neutral site |
| Oct 20, 2019Week 7, 2019 | 49ers 9, Commanders 0at Washington |
| Oct 15, 2017Week 6, 2017 | Commanders 26, 49ers 24at Washington |