4 of 4 models favor the Rams.
On average the models have the Rams by 5 points, a 65% win chance.
Early prediction, updates weekly until kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Rams by 5 | 65% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Rams by 3.7 | 61% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Rams by 4.7 | 66% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Rams by 6.4 | 68% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. Read in the week of the game. | Available game week | — |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Rams | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Not named yet. The quarterbacks we assume show here in game week: once every earlier game is in, or two days before Week 9's first kickoff.
The official Week 9 injury report isn't out yet. It shows here once nflverse has it, in the week of the game.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through Week 5 (the games played so far); league rank in brackets.
| Rams | Commanders | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.10 (4th) | −0.09 (26th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.05 (10th) | −0.04 (21st) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.05 (3rd) | +0.06 (25th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.11 (13th) | +0.03 (19th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.06 (15th) | −0.14 (23rd) |
| Offense success rate | 46% (8th) | 40% (28th) |
The Rams won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Dec 17, 2023Week 15, 2023 | Rams 28, Commanders 20at Los Angeles |
| Oct 11, 2020Week 5, 2020 | Rams 30, Commanders 10at Washington |
| Sep 17, 2017Week 2, 2017 | Commanders 27, Rams 20at Los Angeles |
| Sep 20, 2015Week 2, 2015 | Commanders 24, Rams 10at Washington |
| Dec 7, 2014Week 14, 2014 | Rams 24, Commanders 0at Washington |