3 of 4 models favor the Eagles.
On average the models have the Eagles by 0.5 points, a 52% win chance.
Early prediction, updates weekly until kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Eagles by 0.5 | 52% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Commanders by 3.1 | 59% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Eagles by 2.4 | 58% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Eagles by 2.1 | 56% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. Read in the week of the game. | Available game week | — |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Eagles | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Not named yet. The quarterbacks we assume show here in game week: once every earlier game is in, or two days before Week 8's first kickoff.
The official Week 8 injury report isn't out yet. It shows here once nflverse has it, in the week of the game.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through Week 5 (the games played so far); league rank in brackets.
| Eagles | Commanders | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.13 (31st) | −0.09 (26th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.09 (30th) | −0.04 (21st) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.04 (23rd) | +0.06 (25th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | −0.05 (26th) | +0.03 (19th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.16 (25th) | −0.14 (23rd) |
| Offense success rate | 38% (31st) | 40% (28th) |
The Eagles won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Sep 13, 2026Week 1, 2026 | Eagles 24, Commanders 22at Philadelphia |
| Jan 4, 2026Week 18, 2025 | Commanders 24, Eagles 17at Philadelphia |
| Dec 20, 2025Week 16, 2025 | Eagles 29, Commanders 18at Washington |
| Jan 26, 2025Conference title game, 2024 | Eagles 55, Commanders 23at Philadelphia |
| Dec 22, 2024Week 16, 2024 | Commanders 36, Eagles 33at Washington |