2 of 5 models favor the Cowboys.
On average the models have the Cowboys by 0 points, a 51% win chance.
Final: Giants 28, Cowboys 20.
Closest: SRS (Giants by 1.8, missed by 6.2). 3 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was wrong.
Reconstructed: Week 1 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Giants won 28–20. Dart threw for 230 yards and 3 touchdowns. Our call (Cowboys, Toss-up) was wrong.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Cowboys | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 244 | 394 |
| Passing yards | 175 | 229 |
| Rushing yards | 69 | 165 |
| Sacked | 0 | 2 (1 yard) |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 0 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Even ✗ | 49% | 8.0 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Cowboys by 0.1 ✗ | 50% | 8.1 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Giants by 0.4 ✓ | 51% | 7.6 |
| SRS ClosestSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Giants by 1.8 ✓ | 55% | 6.2 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Cowboys by 2.3 ✗ | 59% | 10.3 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Giants ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Cowboys by 3 | — | 11.0 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 1 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
The Cowboys won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Jan 4, 2026Week 18, 2025 | Giants 34, Cowboys 17at New York |
| Sep 14, 2025Week 2, 2025 | Cowboys 40, Giants 37at Dallas |
| Nov 28, 2024Week 13, 2024 | Cowboys 27, Giants 20at Dallas |
| Sep 26, 2024Week 4, 2024 | Cowboys 20, Giants 15at New York |
| Nov 12, 2023Week 10, 2023 | Cowboys 49, Giants 17at Dallas |