4 of 4 models favor the Cowboys.
On average the models have the Cowboys by 4.9 points, a 65% win chance.
Early prediction, updates weekly until kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Cowboys by 4.9 | 65% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Cowboys by 4.5 | 64% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Cowboys by 4.6 | 66% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Cowboys by 5.6 | 66% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. Read in the week of the game. | Available game week | — |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Cowboys | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Not named yet. The quarterbacks we assume show here in game week: once every earlier game is in, or two days before Week 8's first kickoff.
The official Week 8 injury report isn't out yet. It shows here once nflverse has it, in the week of the game.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through Week 5 (the games played so far); league rank in brackets.
| Cardinals | Cowboys | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.10 (27th) | −0.06 (23rd) |
| Offense, EPA per play | 0.00 (15th) | +0.10 (6th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.10 (29th) | +0.16 (32nd) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.03 (20th) | +0.16 (6th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.07 (16th) | −0.01 (5th) |
| Offense success rate | 45% (11th) | 47% (3rd) |
The Cardinals won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Nov 3, 2025Week 9, 2025 | Cardinals 27, Cowboys 17at Dallas |
| Sep 24, 2023Week 3, 2023 | Cardinals 28, Cowboys 16at Arizona |
| Jan 2, 2022Week 17, 2021 | Cardinals 25, Cowboys 22at Dallas |
| Oct 19, 2020Week 6, 2020 | Cardinals 38, Cowboys 10at Dallas |
| Sep 25, 2017Week 3, 2017 | Cowboys 28, Cardinals 17at Arizona |