4 of 5 models favor the Packers.
On average the models have the Packers by 2.5 points, a 58% win chance.
Updated until kickoff, then frozen.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
Weather at kickoff: 59°F, partly cloudy, wind 10 mph from the south-southwest, little chance of rain.
Forecast: National Weather Service, read Tue, Oct 13 · 10:50 PM CT.
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Packers by 2.5 | 58% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Packers by 3.6 | 61% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Packers by 4.6 | 66% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Packers by 4 | 62% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Cowboys by 2.1 | 58% |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Packers | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Packers by 1.5 | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Injury statuses as of .
The official injury report, as of Tue, Oct 13 · 9:57 AM CT: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet.
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet.
And 2 more on the report.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 6; league rank in brackets.
| Cowboys | Packers | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.06 (23rd) | +0.03 (13th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.10 (6th) | +0.02 (13th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.16 (32nd) | −0.01 (15th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.16 (6th) | +0.16 (7th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.01 (5th) | −0.22 (31st) |
| Offense success rate | 47% (3rd) | 43% (17th) |
The Packers won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Sep 28, 2025Week 4, 2025 | Tie, 40–40at Dallas |
| Jan 14, 2024Wild Card, 2023 | Packers 48, Cowboys 32at Dallas |
| Nov 13, 2022Week 10, 2022 | Packers 31, Cowboys 28at Green Bay |
| Oct 6, 2019Week 5, 2019 | Packers 34, Cowboys 24at Dallas |
| Oct 8, 2017Week 5, 2017 | Packers 35, Cowboys 31at Dallas |