2 of 5 models favor the Texans.
On average the models have the Texans by 1.4 points, a 55% win chance.
Final: Cowboys 34, Texans 30.
Closest: ESPN FPI (Cowboys by 1.3, missed by 2.7). 3 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was wrong.
Reconstructed: Week 4 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Cowboys won 34–30. Prescott threw for 335 yards and 1 touchdown. Our call (Texans, Toss-up) was wrong.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Cowboys | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 399 | 397 |
| Passing yards | 324 | 335 |
| Rushing yards | 75 | 62 |
| Sacked | 3 (11 yards) | 2 (12 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Texans by 1.4 ✗ | 55% | 5.4 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Cowboys by 0.1 ✓ | 50% | 3.9 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Texans by 4.8 ✗ | 67% | 8.8 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Texans by 2.4 ✗ | 57% | 6.4 |
| ESPN FPI ClosestESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Cowboys by 1.3 ✓ | 55% | 2.7 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Cowboys ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Texans by 3 | — | 7.0 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 4 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 4; league rank in brackets.
| Cowboys | Texans | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.02 (19th) | −0.06 (23rd) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.09 (5th) | −0.09 (28th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.12 (32nd) | −0.02 (9th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.19 (4th) | −0.02 (25th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.07 (17th) | −0.21 (30th) |
| Offense success rate | 47% (6th) | 40% (30th) |
The Cowboys won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Nov 18, 2024Week 11, 2024 | Texans 34, Cowboys 10at Dallas |
| Dec 11, 2022Week 14, 2022 | Cowboys 27, Texans 23at Dallas |
| Oct 7, 2018Week 5, 2018 | Texans 19, Cowboys 16at Houston |
| Oct 5, 2014Week 5, 2014 | Cowboys 20, Texans 17at Dallas |
| Sep 26, 2010Week 3, 2010 | Cowboys 27, Texans 13at Houston |