5 of 5 models favor the 49ers.
On average the models have the 49ers by 5.5 points, a 68% win chance.
Final: 49ers 24, Broncos 14.
Closest: ESPN FPI (49ers by 7.9, missed by 2.1). 5 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 4 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The 49ers won 24–14. Purdy threw for 218 yards and 2 touchdowns. Our call (49ers, Lean) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Broncos | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 296 | 358 |
| Passing yards | 214 | 218 |
| Rushing yards | 82 | 140 |
| Sacked | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | 49ers by 5.5 ✓ | 68% | 4.5 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | 49ers by 7 ✓ | 71% | 3.0 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | 49ers by 2 ✓ | 57% | 8.0 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | 49ers by 5.3 ✓ | 65% | 4.7 |
| ESPN FPI ClosestESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | 49ers by 7.9 ✓ | 78% | 2.1 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | 49ers ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | 49ers by 3 | — | 7.0 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 4 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
And 1 more on the report.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 4; league rank in brackets.
| Broncos | 49ers | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | 0.00 (14th) | +0.21 (1st) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.01 (17th) | +0.21 (1st) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | 0.00 (17th) | 0.00 (18th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.03 (21st) | +0.39 (1st) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.07 (16th) | −0.05 (10th) |
| Offense success rate | 43% (18th) | 51% (1st) |
The 49ers won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Sep 25, 2022Week 3, 2022 | Broncos 11, 49ers 10at Denver |
| Dec 9, 2018Week 14, 2018 | 49ers 20, Broncos 14at San Francisco |
| Oct 19, 2014Week 7, 2014 | Broncos 42, 49ers 17at Denver |
| Oct 31, 2010Week 8, 2010 | 49ers 24, Broncos 16neutral site |
| Dec 31, 2006Week 17, 2006 | 49ers 26, Broncos 23at Denver |