5 of 5 models favor the Rams.
On average the models have the Rams by 2.2 points, a 57% win chance.
Final: 49ers 27, Rams 7.
Closest: Our model (Rams by 0.8, missed by 20.8). 0 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was wrong.
Reconstructed: Week 1 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The 49ers won 27–7. Purdy threw for 205 yards and 3 touchdowns. Our call (Rams, Toss-up) was wrong.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | 49ers | Rams |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 379 | 290 |
| Passing yards | 205 | 168 |
| Rushing yards | 174 | 122 |
| Sacked | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 1 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Rams by 2.2 ✗ | 57% | 22.2 |
| Our model Experimental ClosestOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Rams by 0.8 ✗ | 53% | 20.8 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Rams by 2 ✗ | 57% | 22.0 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Rams by 3 ✗ | 59% | 23.0 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Rams by 2.9 ✗ | 60% | 22.9 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Rams ✗ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Rams by 3.5 | — | 23.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 1 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
The Rams won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Nov 9, 2025Week 10, 2025 | Rams 42, 49ers 26at San Francisco |
| Oct 2, 2025Week 5, 2025 | 49ers 26, Rams 23at Los Angeles |
| Dec 12, 2024Week 15, 2024 | Rams 12, 49ers 6at San Francisco |
| Sep 22, 2024Week 3, 2024 | Rams 27, 49ers 24at Los Angeles |
| Jan 7, 2024Week 18, 2023 | Rams 21, 49ers 20at San Francisco |