4 of 4 models favor the 49ers.
On average the models have the 49ers by 10.4 points, a 79% win chance.
Early prediction, updates weekly until kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | 49ers by 10.4 | 79% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | 49ers by 11 | 80% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | 49ers by 10.6 | 82% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | 49ers by 9.5 | 76% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. Read in the week of the game. | Available game week | — |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | 49ers | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Not named yet. The quarterbacks we assume show here in game week: once every earlier game is in, or two days before Week 9's first kickoff.
The official Week 9 injury report isn't out yet. It shows here once nflverse has it, in the week of the game.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through Week 5 (the games played so far); league rank in brackets.
| Raiders | 49ers | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.02 (21st) | +0.19 (1st) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.01 (14th) | +0.16 (2nd) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.03 (21st) | −0.03 (11th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.13 (12th) | +0.31 (1st) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.18 (27th) | −0.05 (14th) |
| Offense success rate | 42% (20th) | 51% (1st) |
The 49ers won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Jan 1, 2023Week 17, 2022 | 49ers 37, Raiders 34at Las Vegas |
| Nov 1, 2018Week 9, 2018 | 49ers 34, Raiders 3at San Francisco |
| Dec 7, 2014Week 14, 2014 | Raiders 24, 49ers 13at Las Vegas |
| Oct 17, 2010Week 6, 2010 | 49ers 17, Raiders 9at San Francisco |
| Oct 8, 2006Week 5, 2006 | 49ers 34, Raiders 20at San Francisco |